The Brexit will be a fact on March 29, 2019. Nobody knows exactly what it entails, and nobody actually knows the consequences it will have. At the same time, it will have major consequences for trade between the UK and the EU in general and between the UK and the Netherlands in particular. This deadlock brought together Dutch Minister Carola Schouten of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (ANFQ), chairman of LTO Netherlands Marc Calon, the chairman of VNO-NCW, Hans de Boer, and some 265 entrepreneurs from the Dutch agricultural sector at the flower auction in Naaldwijk.
Carola Schouten speaks to the packed auction hall
Two scenarios
The minister sees two scenarios. In the first scenario, there will be no deal. In that case, England becomes a so-called third country and the rules of the WTO enter into force as a default. That means (high) import tariffs, all kinds of delays and administrative red tape. In the second scenario, there will be a deal. But at the moment nothing concrete can be said about this. In her own words, mainly the following adage applies nowadays: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."
Hard Brexit
With or without a deal, March 29 is pinned down. But it also has been decided that, whatever it is that has been agreed upon, it will only take effect two years later. The intervening time is a 'transition period'. Looking quietly how things go seems to be an obvious option, but Hans de Boer of VNO-NCW strongly disagrees with this. "In the beginning, I did not believe in it at all, this so-called hard Brexit. Politically speaking it is irrational, in nobody's interest. But now I'm afraid it will come about anyway." The British, he explains, have promised their voters all kinds of things and cannot back out now. At the same time, there will be a strong lobby from the agricultural and other sectors in the UK for reaching good agreements, agreements that the Netherlands would also like to make. However, Brussels will again not allow the Netherlands to make some exceptional arrangements - and so there will be no deal on 29 March.
Hans de Boer of VNO-NCW, Marc Calon of LTO Netherlands and chairman of the day Stefan Wijers
Preparation
So a hard Brexit, but no matter how it will work out, certain preparations could definitely be made. The often-mentioned but undefined 'dry-swimming' is a very nice one, and according to the initiates, it is also advisable to strengthen the ties with the British trading partners even more. More concretely, one can think of potential solutions for potential logistical and phytosanitary problems. The government is hiring people for customs and the ANFQ, so that, in their own words, they will have extra capacity to prevent waiting times for border formalities and they are thinking about setting up pre-clearance facilities. It is also possible for the individual entrepreneur to consider obtaining an AEO certificate, and in any case it is good to stay well-informed.
A panel discussion with, from left, Michiel van Veen (Royal Lemkes), Peter of the KCB, Jan Meijer of the NVWA, Roel van 't Veld from customs and Esther Barendregt from Rabobank.
It takes two
Even when all scenarios have been taken into account and all possible preparations have been made, a big question remains: "What happens on the other side?" What do they do in the UK in terms of regulations and customs? What is being done behind the scenes to facilitate common trade? These questions seem natural, but there is nobody who has a comprehensive view of it. It is striking that the minister, albeit in diplomatic terms, also expressed doubts about the sense of urgency.
Going nowhere
Last but not least, there is a third scenario, between the lines and shared by all parties, that England is not drifting away. Mutual trade is enormous, has deep historical roots, and both have, as De Boer said, every interest in its continuation. By way of illustration (figures from the press release): the estimated export value of processed fruit and vegetables is 2 billion euro (including many greenhouse vegetables, onions, processed products), meat products amount to 1.3 billion, floriculture 1.1 billion, dairy products 250 million, potatoes 200 million and sugar beet 154 million.