Energy update:

NL: "Possible gas crisis this winter mainly heat crisis"

On Wednesday, electricity prices are closer to 100 euros per megawatt-hour (over 104 euros) again after two expensive days with prices of over 140 and 120 euros per megawatt-hour on Monday and Tuesday. The gas price also drops slightly, to 34.7 euros per megawatt hour for the TTF October contract.

TTF gas price contract 'October 2023' to 12 September 2023. Click here to enlarge and get the latest figures.

At Public Affairs' Team Energy Research Strategy, they point to 'a calm start to autumn' in terms of energy. Recent gas price hikes and LNG turmoil had a limited effect on electricity prices. Sensitivity to gas market turmoil seems to be 'slightly diminishing' for electricity markets, they write in a new update.

The update points to 'a big difference' between gas and electricity when comparing the active monthly contract and the 2024 delivery contract. Whereas for electricity, the price difference between those two contracts is around 30-35%, it is double that for gas contracts. As a cause, Public Affairs points out that some of the turmoil in gas markets can be absorbed in electricity generation. Among other things, coal-fired power plants can run harder, solar and especially wind energy is increasing, and chemical processes will partly switch to oil. One predicts a possible gas crisis next winter will be mainly a heat crisis and less of an electricity crisis, although even those prices could still rise sharply. Read the full update here.

Greenhouse gas emissions by climate agreement sector, top to bottom: total IPCC, industry, mobility, agriculture, electricity, built environment, land use

CBS has released new figures on Dutch greenhouse gas emissions. These were 5 percent lower in the second quarter compared to 2022. This was mainly due to 23 percent lower emissions from the electricity sector. However, emissions from mobility were 7 percent higher. Emissions from the agriculture sector were almost the same as last year.

What may help with this is a record number of heat days this year. On Tuesday, Weeronline recorded the 100th warm day this year. In De Bilt, the required temperature of 20 degrees was exceeded at 10.20. Since records began, it is already the 13th time it has reached 100 or more warm days in the year. On average, a year in the current climate has 93 warm days in De Bilt.

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