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Green v Grey: what will Australia's cities look like as temperatures and populations rise

Australia’s largest urban greening initiative has today revealed 67 percent of suburbs and cities across the country will face significant challenges in growing and maintaining green cover in the future, as the country's cities grapple with a rising population and grey spaces expand with urban development.

Where Will All The Trees Be?* – the third report in Australia’s only national tree canopy benchmarking series, led by RMIT University and Greener Spaces Better Places – also confirms the majority (69 percent) of our urban areas have lost green cover (trees and shrubs) since 2013, spanning 131 urban and peri-urban Local Government Areas (LGAs).

While promisingly over the last four years 63 per cent of places increased their green cover, during the same period 73 percent of LGAs increased their grey cover - hard surfaces such as roads,
pavement and roofs.

A growing population means more pressure on green cover in our suburbs and cities - as our cities and suburbs grow, it is vital our green cover keeps pace.

Associate Professor Joe Hurley RMIT lead researcher, says that while some places are defying the odds and growing thriving urban forests, others have reported concerning levels of loss and face significant challenges to grow their green cover in the future.

“Fundamentally, as our suburbs, towns and cities grow, so should our green cover - but in order to increase our urban green cover, we need to understand what’s happening where, and why.” “From this study, we can see green cover varies wildly by place. For example, Cairns Regional Council has Australia’s highest recorded level of green cover, with 82.9 percent, whereas Wyndham City Council has Australia’s lowest recorded level of green cover with 5.4 percent. However, this isn’t a full and fair picture of what is going on.”

“Cairns have a higher than average rainfall and contain large areas of native forest. Whereas Wyndham contains large areas of grassland and agricultural land, limiting its opportunities for urban greening. It is important to recognise that place type and context really matters.”

“This study is a deep dive into the rates of increase and decline of urban greening across Australia, but through the lens of six different place types determined by rainfall, urbanisation and population
density. These place types help us more usefully compare performance within and across cities to understand what improvement might be possible with concerted effort, and what deterioration might
occur with complacency.”

“Over time, changes in population will be inevitable, but there’s no reason why our cities can’t have thriving urban forests. There are great examples all over Australia of how this can happen,” said Associate Professor Hurley.

The study identified the following as ‘best on ground’ - places who have maintained or grown their green cover despite population pressures or grey cover increases.**

  • City of Whittlesea, Victoria (suburban, spacious and low rainfall)
  • Logan City Council, Queensland (suburban, spacious and high rainfall)
  • City of Greater Dandenong, Victoria (urban, spacious and low rainfall)
  • Kwinana City Council, Western Australia (urban, spacious and high rainfall)
  • City of Unley, South Australia (urban, spacious and low rainfall)
  • The City of Parramatta, New South Wales (urban, compact and high rainfall)

Meg Caffin, urban forest expert and research consultant, said, “To help stem green cover loss and ensure the future viability of our urban forests in our suburbs and cities, we can plan better and plant
now. We can also learn from who is doing this well, even within the context of challenges, and drive change within government, businesses and the community.”

In the face of a changing climate, green cover is crucial for mitigating the impacts of urban heat, cooling our urban landscapes and providing a range of social, environmental, and economic benefits.”

Covid-19 has had a massive impact on the world and our behaviour. Amongst the disruption, urban green spaces have played a critical role in boosting resilience during the pandemic, helping with both physical and mental wellbeing.*** As gyms and swimming pools closed, use of parks and recreational areas skyrocketed.

In Sydney alone, Centennial Park visits were estimated to be up by 20 per cent, Moore Park’s Golf and tennis courts saw a 50 percent increase in numbers, and use of Western Sydney Parklands
doubled.

Dr. Dominique Hes, regenerative development expert, said, "Healthy, happy and liveable cities rely on urban greening for a range of benefits, and are critical for mental and physical well being. Studies
show as little as 20 minutes in green spaces can reduce stress due to how our brains are wired. Our brains evolved in nature, and when surrounded by green spaces the fight or flight and emotional parts
of the brain are less on edge - this affinity to connect to nature is called biophilia. This innate connection has never been more evident than during the COVID-19 pandemic, where we've become acutely aware of the importance of access to nature in our everyday lives."

“Green cover increases biodiversity and helps to cool our urban environments. It also works to mitigate the effects of climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide from surrounding environments, pumping oxygen back into the atmosphere, working as the 'lungs' of our cities. If we plan ahead and plant now, we can grow interconnected, regenerative and prosperous places for people to live, work
and relax into the future,” said Dr. Hes.

Use the interactive tool at www.greenerspacesbetterplaces.com.au to find out how different places rate.

* 1Where Will All The Trees Be? is funded by Hort Innovation
Green cover is defined as trees over 3m and shrubs under 3m Grey cover is defined as hard surfaces such as roads and pavement 
** Able to be used as a reference point for areas with similar climate or challenges
*** Samuelsson K, Barthel S, Colding J, Macassa G, Giusti M (2020) Urban nature as a source of resilience during social distancing amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Landsc Urban Plan. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/3wx5a  

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