Come Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 Valentine's Day will be celebrated and Prince & Prince, Inc. (P&P), one of the leaders in market research focused on the floral and green plant industry, has released a projection for the number of U.S. households that will make floral purchases for Valentine's Day 2023, and an estimate of the retail value of those romantic floral purchases.
"On this day, nearly 54 million U.S. households (53.6 million) will have made one or more fresh floral purchases to celebrate Valentine's Day with significant people in their lives, in or out of the household. The P&P U.S. household aggregate spending projection on all floral products for Valentine's Day 2023 is over $3.6 billion dollars at retail ($3.62 billion). This value includes all fresh floral products, including fresh cut flowers (largely roses), arrangements, bouquets, bunches, single stems, and corsages, and also indoor potted flowering and foliage plants & planters, and any associated delivery/ service fees."
Special Note: This Prince & Prince (P&P) floral market report utilizes the latest U.S. household projections from the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University. JCHS utilizes Census data and makes periodic adjustments for factors that affect household formation (McCue, 2023)
This projected market value for Valentine's Day 2023 is higher than any previous Valentine's Day market projection by P&P, they report. "This is largely due to recently revised U.S. household estimates by the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University (McCue, 2023), a relatively high incidence of purchase projection for Valentine's Day, and generally higher prices due to recent inflationary pressures." Over the past few years, there has been a surge in the growth of households in the U.S. driven by a sharp turnaround in growth among younger households (See Figure 1). "Prior JCHS projections (2011 to 2016) had household growth pegged at around 1.2 million additional households annually. Now, the latest updates (2016 to 2021) peg that annual growth rate at around 2.2 million households, an additional annual growth of 1 million households, largely among those under the age of 45. And since floral-buying households under the age of 45 have a slightly higher "Incidence of Floral Purchase" for Valentine's Day compared to older-aged households (53% vs. 47%; Prince & Prince, 2020), the floral market value projection for Valentine's Day expands considerably. The growth effect is synergistic, as the consumer segment that is expanding also has a higher predilection for purchasing floral for Valentine's Day."
Figure 1. The Recent Surge in Household Growth Has Been Driven By A Sharp Turnaround in Growth of Younger Households. (click here to enlarge the image)
According to P&P market survey estimates, Valentine's Day is still the second largest "floral holiday" for the U.S. floral industry, in terms of consumer dollar spending on floral products, with floral spending second only to Mother's Day. P&P's 2022 Mother's Day floral market projection was over $5 billion (Prince & Prince, 2022). P&P also projects that each floral-purchasing household, on average, will spend about $67 on floral products for Valentine's Day 2023, including all household members that make a floral purchase, with associated delivery/ service fees included.
A pending recession in the U.S. economy was not factored into their Valentine's Day forecast for 2023. "Although many economists and bank CEOs (e.g. Jamie Dimon and others) have been "wringing their hands" in despair as they forecast an upcoming bad recession (claims since the Fall of 2022), we at P&P believe that if a recession does occur in 2023, it will be late, and mild, if at all in 2023. These doomsayers fail to interpret the data trends right before their eyes; falling inflation, low unemployment, somewhat higher wages, and, as this article is written, breaking news reports that the U.S. economy added 517,000 new jobs in January 2023, almost triple market expectations! One does not get that size of job growth just prior to a recession. At P&P, we ignore the "market noise" and stand behind our somewhat bullish Valentine's Day floral market projection."
About the P&P U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey
The P&P floral survey identifies the types of consumers who buy fresh floral products, what they buy, where they buy, when they buy, why they buy, & how much they spend on fresh cut flowers & indoor potted flowering/ foliage plants and planters. The 1,000+ respondent survey also provides a comprehensive evaluation of the many businesses (and websites) that market floral products through a 30-attribute consumer rating of floral businesses (florist shops, supermarkets, discount stores, Internet/ 800-number businesses, wholesale stores, garden centers, home/ hardware centers, farmers' markets, street vendors, and convenience stores. P&P has been tracking U.S. consumer floral purchasing behavior for Valentine's Day, and floral purchasing for more than 20 holidays, events, and occasions over the past three decades with their periodic surveys of floral-buying households nationwide (Prince & Prince, 2020). The survey employs both a random selection of U.S. households via a mail-based survey with monetary incentives, and a random selection of U.S. households through an Internet-based survey panel. This "mixed-mode" survey methodology has been shown to greatly improve the quality and representation of survey results (Dillman et al., 2014).
P&P plans to commence a 2023 tracking survey of floral-buying households later this Summer. "Please contact P&P if your company has an interest in becoming a P&P Research Sponsor. Research Sponsors receive the complete floral tracking survey results (current and historical trends) thru a one-day, on-site seminar with Q&A, and the complete 800+ slide presentation on a flash drive. Sponsors also receive exclusivity of the floral market information for a one-year period following the completion of the consumer research. Interested parties should contact P&P for research sponsorship opportunities at 614-264-0939, or email Tom at 2640939@gmail.com."
About the authors
Drs. Tom and Tim Prince, formerly of The Ohio State University, Department of Horticulture, are brothers and co-founders of Prince & Prince, Inc. (P&P), a leading marketing research specialist in the floral and green plant industry. P&P has completed more than 75 major marketing research projects and countless reports for the floral industry in the U.S., and has also conducted floral market projects in Canada, and in Europe. P&P has research experience in both experimental research design & analysis and in survey research design & analysis, and often combines both research domains in the conduct of P&P research for their clients. P&P conceptualize, design, and implement market research projects and product value analyses for floral companies and floral associations up and down the entire floral distribution channel.
Literature Cited
Dillman, D.A., Smyth, J.D. and Christian, L.M. (2014). Internet, Phone, Mail, and Mixed-Mode Surveys (Fourth Edition). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
McCue, D. (2023). The Surge in Household Growth and What It Suggests About the Future of Housing Demand. Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.
Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2022). Historical Consumer Floral Purchasing Trends for Mother's Day: An Age Group Perspective. (P&P Market Report). Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.
Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2020). The 2019 Prince & Prince U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey (On-Site Seminar with Q&A, and Seminar on Flash). Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.
For more information:
Tom Prince
Floral Market Research
Email: 2640939@gmail.com
www.FloralMarketResearch.com