As Valentine's Day of 2026 approaches, Kenya's flower export supply chain is once again operating under a familiar paradox. Production outlooks are broadly positive, demand remains resilient across core markets, and yet the system remains vulnerable to capacity mismatches and operational choke points that surface every peak season. For exporters, the weeks ahead are less about whether flowers will be grown and more about whether they can be moved efficiently through an air cargo system that still lacks seasonal elasticity.
The global cut flower market was valued at about $35 billion in 2025 and is projected to nearly double to roughly $61 billion by 2035, according to an Astute Analytica report, driven by sustained consumer spending on gifting occasions and rising commercial demand across key importing regions. Within this broader context, Kenya remains a significant exporter, having shipped 102,500 tonnes of flowers in 2024, including 66,688 tonnes in just the first half, and earning roughly KSh 108 billion (about $835 million) in foreign exchange from floriculture.
The weather has played a defining role in shaping expectations this year. Across Kenya and Ethiopia, growing conditions have supported stronger output compared to the previous season, raising confidence around availability. But that headline improvement masks a more complex reality on farms.
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