UK: Garden centers report solid January sales, but escalating business costs threaten profitability

This month's Horticultural Trades Association's (HTA) Market Update shows that garden centre sales grew by 6% last month, compared to January 2025. This is a solid start to the year despite exceptionally wet and cold conditions across much of the UK. As a sector heavily weather-dependent, this has a significant impact alongside the ongoing cost pressures facing environmental horticultural businesses.

Overall sales were also up 8% compared to January 2024. However, average transaction values rose by just 1-2%, which is below the current rate of inflation. This suggests growth was driven primarily by increased footfall rather than higher basket spend, pointing to ongoing consumer caution and tight retail margins.

© Horticultural Trades Association

Fran Barnes, Chief Executive of the Horticultural Trades Association, said: "While the headline data is encouraging, it is important to note that it's largely driven by an increase in the number of customers rather than an increase in how much each customer spends. With average transaction values rising below inflation, it's clear customers are shopping carefully and looking for value. Businesses are seeing more people through the doors, but they are also managing tight margins in a highly cost-sensitive environment.

"Environmental horticulture is an industry where over 90% of businesses are SMEs, and they are currently absorbing significant cost increases. The recent increases in the National Living Wage and employer National Insurance contributions, alongside higher business rates and energy-related costs, have added an estimated £134 million in additional costs for our membership, directly affecting investment decisions, recruitment, and pricing strategies for many businesses.

"The mixed performance in gardening categories reflects the impact that weather can have at this time of year. Prolonged cold and heavy rainfall inevitably delay certain purchases, but strong demand for seeds and bulbs suggests consumers are planning ahead and remain engaged with gardening as a longer-term investment in their homes.

"Consumer confidence has edged up again, particularly in relation to personal finances, and that is a welcome signal. However, overall confidence remains negative and perceptions of the wider economy continue to weigh on sentiment. That combination means businesses are trading in a cautiously improving but still fragile environment.

"January is a small month in our trading calendar, so the real test will be the spring season. If weather conditions stabilise and consumer confidence continues to improve, there is clear potential for growth, but cost pressures remain a defining feature of the operating landscape for 2026."

© Horticultural Trades AssociationFran Barnes

January's exceptionally heavy rainfall, as much as +88% above average in some regions due to three named storms, also helped ease short-term pressure on water availability in several regions, reducing immediate supply concerns as the sector prepares for the core gardening season. However, this has also created significant issues for growers where soil is flooded and crops, particularly trees, are difficult to plant. Nurseries are needing to invest in resilience for both deluge and drought.

Overall, the data presents a balanced picture for business: resilient footfall and steady consumer demand, offset by margin pressure and ongoing structural cost headwinds as the industry moves toward its peak trading period.