The following article is written by Mekonnen Solomon, a former Director of Horticultural Investment, Ministry of Agriculture in Ethiopia.
The eruption of the USA-Israel-Iran conflict on 28 February 2026 has profoundly reshaped the security landscape of the Middle East and the Gulf region, generating significant ripple effects across the Horn of Africa. Amid these developments, Ethiopian Airlines, the national flag carrier, continues to serve as the cornerstone of Ethiopia's floriculture success. For over two decades, the airline has positioned Ethiopia as a preferred origin for perishable cargo through its competitive freight rates, extensive global network, and superior connectivity compared to regional peers. This strategic advantage has enabled Ethiopian flowers, herbs, and other horticultural products to reach premium markets in Europe and the Middle East with unmatched speed and reliability, thereby sustaining the sector's international competitiveness.
In response to escalating operational costs arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions, Ethiopian Airlines implemented a revised cargo tariff structure for perishable exports under Price Class PEF, effective 8 April 2026 and valid until 31 December 2026. The adjustment introduces a uniform 20 percent increase across applicable tariffs for horticultural commodities. Although the airline has framed this measure as a necessary response to rising fuel, insurance, and logistical expenses, the impact is particularly significant within the critical weight brackets of +45 kg and +100 kg, despite these tiers typically representing smaller commercial flower shipments.
Ethiopian cargo rates follow a standard tiered weight-break system commonly employed in air freight. Under this structure, the charge per kilogram decreases progressively as shipment weight increases. The principal tiers include: Minimum charge: A fixed charge applied per shipment when the weight-based calculation yields a lower amount,Normal rate: Applies to the first 45 kg (or the base rate for smaller shipments),+45 kg: Rate per kilogram for the portion of the shipment from 45 kg up to 100 kg, +100 kg: Rate per kilogram for the portion from 100 kg up to 300 kg, +300 kg, +500 kg, +1,000 kg, and higher tiers (up to +20,000 kg): Progressive rates for larger shipments, though not all destinations offer rates in every tier.
As an expert in the floriculture sector, I maintain that this tariff increase poses a substantial risk to the already narrow profit margins upon which many Ethiopian producers depend, potentially threatening the operational viability of numerous enterprises in an intensely competitive global market. The implications of this adjustment are expected to reverberate throughout the horticultural value chain, compelling stakeholders to pursue innovation and adaptive strategies to preserve long-term profitability.
Key European gateways, including Paris (CDG), Frankfurt (FRA), London (LHR), and Brussels (BRU), together with vital Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai (DXB), Abu Dhabi (AUH), Doha (DOH), and Riyadh (RUH), are now subject to these elevated per-kilogram charges. Although the revised pricing remains net and incorporates fuel, insurance, terminal handling, and screening fees, the structural increase arrives at a particularly challenging juncture for the industry.
The National Bank of Ethiopia's recent floor-price revisions for roses—Highland: USD 4.5711/kg, Midland: USD 4.7631/kg, and Lowland: USD 5.1292/kg—along with adjustments for summer flowers, were established on the premise of stable freight costs. Exporters now face a difficult dilemma: either renegotiate higher selling prices with international buyers to fulfil repatriation requirements or seek alternative routing options to mitigate transport expenses. Both pathways entail considerable risks. Upward price adjustments may erode market share, while rerouting could compromise the cold-chain integrity and timely delivery that constitute Ethiopia's core competitive advantage.
For more than twenty years, Ethiopia's floriculture sector has prospered through a synergistic model comprising reliable lift capacity from Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, historically competitive freight incentives offered by Ethiopian Airlines, and consistent access to high-value international markets. This framework has generated significant foreign exchange earnings and created substantial employment opportunities across highland, midland, and lowland production zones. The current tariff revision, however, highlights a structural vulnerability: the sector's pronounced dependence on a single dominant carrier at a time when global supply chains are increasingly fragile due to regional geopolitical instability.
Producers operating under constrained seasonal cash flows, as well as smallholder growers at the farm gate, are likely to bear the most severe consequences should export order volumes decline or quality standards come under pressure. The experience of Kenya's flower industry, which has reported weekly losses of up to USD 1.4 million amid reduced demand and logistical disruptions, serves as a cautionary regional precedent.
A strategic and collaborative response is now essential. Ethiopian Airlines has consistently demonstrated its dedication to national development objectives, exemplified by major infrastructure investments such as the new cargo facility in Bishoftu. The horticulture community has equally proven its resilience in the face of prior external shocks. Structured dialogue among Ethiopian Airlines, the Ministry of Agriculture, exporters' associations, and the National Bank of Ethiopia is therefore imperative.
Practical and actionable solutions are within reach. These include the introduction of volume-based incentives for certified shipments, targeted government freight subsidies during periods of geopolitical volatility, joint exploration of supplementary freighter capacity, and the development of enhanced contractual mechanisms to hedge against currency and fuel price fluctuations and other measure that the government of Ethiopia committed during COVID-19 Pandemic time. Importers of Flower in Europe and the Middle East, who continue to value the reliability of Ethiopian supply chains, may also be willing partners in sharing the burden of elevated logistics costs.
The Ethiopian flower export industry has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity for innovation and adaptability. Although the present challenge is undeniably serious, it also presents an opportunity to strengthen the sector's long-term sustainability. By approaching the tariff adjustment not as an isolated event but as a catalyst for deeper stakeholder alignment, the industry can protect livelihoods, safeguard market positioning, and ensure that Ethiopia remains the preferred global supplier of responsibly cultivated, high-quality floricultural products.
Close monitoring of export volumes, price transmission effects, and buyer feedback over the coming months will be critical. Developments during the forthcoming quarter will determine whether this episode represents a temporary recalibration or a more structural shift in the economics of Ethiopian floriculture. As a stakeholder deeply committed to the sector's continued growth and prosperity, I remain confident that a coordinated, data-driven response will enable the industry not only to navigate the current challenges but to emerge with a more robust, diversified, and resilient foundation for the future.
For more information
Mekonnen Solomon
Email: [email protected]
